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The Exit Internationalist

March 14, 2014

Think carefully about your preferences

www.themaynereport.com

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Dear WA Senate candidates (and a few others interested in politics), apologies for not being able to make it across and join the contest on April 5 – it just didn’t quite work out in the end.

However, as a veteran of these intense 24 hour upper house preference negotiation processes in two Victorian upper house contests and the 2010 Victorian Senate race, I thought some final negotiating thoughts would be useful to share.

Firstly, the DLP has done pooly on the ballot paper and won’t have as much to offer as usual. It works best for them if they are just to the left of Labor.

The reverse applies for the Liberal Democrats who are well placed in the middle with the real Liberals well out to the far Right. However, the real Liberals will no doubt run a strong education campaign to reduce the accidental Lib Dem votes so expect them to fall below 3% this time around.

The donkey vote will work well for Wikileaks and the Greens but all the talk is of numerous groups not doing the Greens any favours on preferences.

The big one in this regard will be whether Palmer and the ALP swap preferences before going to the Greens. If that happens, it will be very tough for the Greens, especially if the Sex Party continue their recent trend of preferencing Labor ahead of them.

Progressive parties negotiating with Labor should ask them about their Palmer versus the Greens ranking before committing to any deals as this would cut right across the traditional Left-Right divide. Part of the progressive Labor base would shift their primary votes to the Greens if there was a big media storm about Shorten backing a billionaire like Palmer who has donated more than $5 million to the Coalition over the years before going native.

Speaking of the Sex Party, their candidate Fiona Patten is a stand out political performer and would do a great job if elected to the Senate.

Sure, if you’re a conservative Christian group, you won’t go near her but there’s no reason Shooters, Smokers, Pirates or Motoring Enthusiasts wouldn’t want to see a feisty women taking it to the uber social conservative Tony Abbott. The Sex Party have considered and consistent libertarian positions and would make natural philosophical allies for the Liberal Democrats. I’ve debated Fiona in a number of political contests over the years and always found her charming and impressive.

The same could be said for Dr Philip Nitschke who is one of the few candidates not interested in winning, but instead is focused on elevating his favourite issue of voluntary euthanasia.

Dr Nitschke has a lot to offer and would do a great job in the Senate, so why not elevate his preference allocation given his particular lack of ambition to win this contest.

It’s a shame the Nationals aren’t running the popular David Wirrpanda again, but Geraldton accountant Shane Van Styn is said to have a lot to offer so he is probably worth supporting ahead of the Liberals.

One of the amusing elements of a Senate only election is that the candidates can’t just hide in the shadows. This has really exposed factional backroom operator Joe Bullock who heads the Labor ticket but hasn’t been blessed with great communication skills. The Conservative Catholics inside the SDA really need to try and find some charismatic political representatives.

If you’re fed up with the faceless men, why not preference Labor’s number two Louise Pratt ahead of union boss Joe Bullock just to make that point.

Preferences Svengali and long distance cyclist Glenn Druery will no doubt keep talking to some of you but remember his base client is usually the Shooters.

The media and the Big Parties will be all over any arrangements which appear excessively secretive of cynical, so try to make sure earlier preference allocations go to ideological fellow travelers with candidates you can be proud to support.

Former ABC Perth Drive presenter Russell Woolf is one such candidate. I’ve spoken to prominent ABC people in Perth this week who describe him as a smashing fellow.

Whilst Russell and Verity James will suffer from the lack of party branding above the line, don’t be surprised if they finish in the top 8 and end up being decisive in the final count.

As we all know, the only 3 certainties to be sitting on the red leather in Canberra from June 30 are Labor’s Joe Bullock, the ABC hating Defence Minister David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. For anyone who listens to the Senate, Michaelia is undoubtedly the most aggressive speaker on the Liberal side. Frankly, just like with the defeated Sophie Mirabella, many people find her way too combative and divisive.

The same could be said for Greens Senator Scott Ludlam whose extraordinary Senate speech about this election is now up to more than 750,000 views.

It was wrong to call Tony Abbott a homophobe and Scott is clearly quite an angry person, but there’s no doubting either his work ethic, integrity or intellect. In fact, Greens talk of him as a future leader who has much more to offer than the likes of Sarah Hanson-Young and Lee Rhiannon.

Of the other micro parties, Anthony Fels from the Mutual Party is worth a look, although he’s probably run even more times than me.

Wayne Dropulich from the Sports Party will probably crack 1% this time, but his attraction as an inoffensive vehicle through which to wash early preference allocations probably won’t be taken up by quite so many groups this time.

What to do with your preferences

We all know the old saying “power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely”. If 3 Liberals get elected to the WA Senate on April 5, Tony Abbott will have less checks and balances for the period ahead. For this reason, it would be preferable to have the Nationals, Palmer or even Family First take the third “Right” spot, so think about that when allocating your preferences.

In terms of the Left, it would be a shame to lose the experienced Louise Pratt and Scott Ludlam from the Senate. If only Labor’s machine men (even heard of a machine woman?) would put more capable women at the top of Senate tickets across the country.

However, if one of them was to go, Fiona Patten and Dr Phillip Nitschke would add welcome diversity, experience, passion and communication skills to the current Senate mix. Senator Russell Woolf also has a nice ring to it and he’d do the state proud.

If anyone wants to talk this through before the deadline for lodging your preference tickets at noon tomorrow, feel free to call 0412 106 241 or just reply to this email. Unlike Mr Druery, I’m completely independent and not on anyone’s payroll. I also haven’t spoken to or communicated with any of the 77 candidates or their nominated representatives before writing and sending this missive.

Best of luck with the negotiations in what will hopefully be the last time in Australian politics we suffer this crazy process of rushed all-or-nothing preference haggling over huge fields on a giant ballot paper.

Come 2016, we will hopefully have optional preferential voting where you can just tick 1 next to your favourite candidate and then not be forced to allocate your preferences to the other 76 candidates in the field in a complex and poorly disclosed system.

Journalist: Stephen Mayne


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